ACT Research: Class 5-8 Truck Orders Show Early 2026 Momentum

After months of freight softness and cautious fleet spending, new data from ACT Research suggests the truck market may be turning a corner.

Preliminary January 2026 figures show North American Class 8 net orders reached 30,800 units, marking a 20% year-over-year increase. While one strong month does not confirm a full recovery, the momentum signals renewed confidence among fleets following a weaker fall period.

Several economic and industry factors appear to be influencing the uptick.

What Is Driving the Increase in Class 8 Orders?

According to ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth, three primary catalysts helped spur order activity:

• Continued resilience in the U.S. economy

• Greater clarity surrounding EPA 2027 emissions regulations

• A sustained rise in spot market freight rates

The rebound in spot rates, particularly after multiple Midwest snowstorms, created short-term capacity constraints that strengthened pricing power. For fleets that had delayed equipment purchases during the freight recession, improving rates provide incentive to modernize equipment or secure production slots before pricing shifts again.

Regulatory clarity also matters. With better visibility into EPA 2027 requirements, fleets can now plan equipment purchases without the uncertainty that previously slowed capital investment decisions.

Medium-Duty Orders Show More Modest Gains

While Class 8 saw notable improvement, medium-duty (Classes 5-7) orders totaled 15,800 units in January, an 11% year-over-year increase.

However, context is important. January 2025 was the weakest January for medium-duty orders since 2013. That means the 11% gain may reflect an easier year-over-year comparison rather than a dramatic shift in demand.

Still, modest growth across both heavy- and medium-duty segments indicates the industry may be stabilizing.

Is the Freight Cycle Turning?

The freight market has endured a prolonged downturn marked by:

• Depressed contract and spot rates

• Elevated equipment costs

• Tight credit conditions

• Regulatory uncertainty

A 20% year-over-year increase in Class 8 orders does not erase those challenges. However, it does suggest that some fleets believe the worst of the downturn may be behind them.

If spot rate strength continues and macroeconomic conditions remain stable, equipment demand could build gradually throughout 2026. At the same time, fleets remain cautious. Many are still prioritizing cost control, optimizing utilization, and preserving liquidity.

What This Means for Motor Carriers

For fleet owners and independent operators, rising truck orders can signal multiple things:

Capacity May Gradually Increase
If production schedules fill and deliveries accelerate, capacity could expand later this year or into 2027.

Equipment Costs Could Remain Elevated
EPA 2027 compliance and tariff pressures continue to influence pricing. Locking in equipment sooner rather than later may offer cost advantages.

Used Truck Values May Stabilize
As new orders increase, used equipment supply and pricing dynamics may shift.

Financing Conditions Matter
Interest rates and lender appetite will play a critical role in determining how sustainable this order growth becomes.

In short, the data points toward cautious optimism, not a full freight boom.

Risk, Investment, and Insurance Considerations

Equipment expansion during an early-cycle recovery carries both opportunity and risk. Adding trucks increases revenue potential but also increases exposure, including:

Higher liability limits
Physical damage coverage adjustments
Driver recruitment and retention risks
Regulatory compliance scrutiny

Before expanding a fleet or upgrading equipment, it is critical to align insurance structure with operational growth plans.

At Allcom Insurance, we help trucking companies evaluate coverage before they scale. Whether you are adding new Class 8 units, refinancing existing equipment, or adjusting to shifting market conditions, our team ensures your policy structure evolves with your business.

Call 866-277-9049 or email info@allcomins.com to review your coverage strategy before making your next capital investment decision.

The freight cycle moves in waves. Smart fleets prepare before the next one crests.